Why Scott Brown Will Defeat Elizabeth Warren

Politically, I definitely lean to the left, and I live in a state bluer than Frank Sinatra's eyes.  In this heavily democratic state, we've got a race for Senate going on.  By all rights, Scott Brown shouldn't have a chance:

• Elizabeth Warren is a great representative of democratic party ideals: fighting big business and standing up for the little guy.
• Elizabeth Warren supports the new Health Care Law, and Scott Brown doesn't.
• Elizabeth Warren supports gay marriage, and Scott Brown doesn't.
• On immigration, taxes, gun control, and unions, Elizabeth Warren is squarely to the left of Scott Brown and more closely aligned to most people's views in Massachusetts.

And Elizabeth Warren is going to lose.  Why? Because Scott Brown beats Warren hands-down on one critical issue: he is the poster boy for independent-minded politics.  People across the country are so sick of partisan politics that Scott Brown's willingness to publicly rebuke his own party on even a few issues is incredibly refreshing and attractive.

Most notably, Scott Brown has taken major lumps from his own party for rebuking the Republican stance on abortion: not only pointing out to Massachusetts voters that he is squarely pro-choice, but highlighting his independent-minded politics.  In the past he voted against his party for the Dodd-Frank bill to overhaul Wall Street, and with democrats to attempt to end a Republican fillibuster on the Bring-Jobs-Home bill.

In this divisive age of partisan politics, a candidate that has proven his willingness to think, vote, and speak-out independently is so unique that he will win Massachusetts on this "soft" issue alone.  While Elizabeth Warren will win every vote from the democratic base, Scott Brown will get the republican base and most of the independent voters as well.  This is because they value independent thinking and a willingness to cross party lines more than they value alignment on individual issues.